BCE: contingencias y medidas

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Mario Draghi ha sido hoy muy explícito. Ha explicado cómo actuaría el BCE exactamente ante cada una de las contingencias que pudiera surgir. 

Por Jaime Costero

El contenido de este artículo esta sacado textualmente de las palabras de Mario Draghi hoy en Amsterdam. Únicamente lo he reordenado para hacer más sencilla su visualización.

El QE en Europa sólo se ve como última instancia, en caso de que las expectativas de inflación a medio-largo plazo  empeoren. Pero señala como primeras opciones: 1) un recorte de tipos (incluyendo tipos de depósito negativos), 2) la extensión del full-allotment (la barra libre del BCE) que estaría ahora hasta mediados del año que viene, 3) la extensión de las LTRO actuales (ahora todo lo que queda debe ser repagado para principios de 2015, así que alargándolo aseguramos un repago mas escalado en el tiempo, y menores tensiones de liquidez. Por otro lado alargarlo implicaría también alargar el full-allotment), 4) una LTRO ligada al crédito (FLS LTRO), 5) compras de ABS.

What would be our policy response should this contingency arise?

In our view an undue tightening of the policy stance can be addressed through a variety of more conventional measures.

  1. These include a further lowering of the interest rate corridor, including a negative deposit rate.
  2. They include a further extension of the fixed-rate full allotment procedure, beyond the period currently envisaged. Remember that in November 2013 we announced our decision to continue conducting the main refinancing operations (MROs) as fixed-rate tender procedures, with full allotment, at least until July 2015.
  3. Finally, if necessary, the measures could include new liquidity injections via our liquidity operations, including longer-term fixed-rate operations.

Another contingency that would warrant a monetary policy reaction would be further impairments in the transmission of our stance, in particular via the bank lending channel.

  1. Given the reduction in bank funding costs over the last year and the ongoing clean-up of the banking sector through the comprehensive assessment, our assessment is that bank lending conditions are improving and will continue to improve. Yet if this scenario does not materialise, we may have to respond.
  2. This could take several forms, including a longer-term refinancing operation (LTRO) targeted towards encouraging bank lending or
  3. an ABS purchase programme, supported by the necessary regulatory changes aimed at revitalising high quality securitisation in Europe.

A third contingency would be a worsening of the medium-term outlook for inflation. One cause for this could be by a broad-based weakening of aggregate demand that derails our baseline scenario of a moderate recovery. Another cause could be a substantial positive supply shock that, given the current low level of inflation, loosens the anchoring of medium-term inflation expectations. Unlike the other contingencies, the objective here would not be to defend the current stance, but rather to increase meaningfully the degree of monetary accommodation. Hence, the limited margin for manoeuvre that remains over short-term interest rates would not be sufficient. This would be the context for a more broad-based asset purchase programme (QE).

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